Football is back! And so is my little blog...

Let's take a quick look back at week 1 in college football and a quick look ahead to week 2.

-I'll start with Texas A&M since they represent all that is good and holy in this world. The Aggies first game was postponed due to the hurricane, which was a giant let down for everyone (the cancellation, not the hurricane... the hurricane was just ok... I've had better). So... that's about it for looking back to week 1 for the Ags. I'll revisit them in a bit as I look to week 2.

-How about a little more SEC talk? South Carolina and Vanderbilt went about exactly the way I picture all SEC games going. Poor offense, good defense, low scoring, with the better team eventually winning. People always rave about the SEC defenses and use that a reason why A&M will supposedly get crushed, but I think a large part of the equation is just bad offense. Last year Alabama only played one team all season (Arkansas) that had a top 50 offense. ONE! Meanwhile, A&M played against 5 of the top 13. Some might say it's a chicken and egg scenario (Does the Big 12 have good offenses or bad defenses?) and maybe some  chicken and some egg in it (huh?), but the fact is, the SEC does NOT have dynamic offenses, outside of Arkansas and now, hopefully, A&M. 

-Alabama! SEC! SEC! It's just not fair. I'll just leave it at that. And if you don't know what I'm talking about, just go look at the first half play by play from their game against Michigan. They are this year's national champions, in my opinion.

-Florida, who I did watch closely since they are playing A&M this week, looked... ok. They were just ok as a team last year, and there's not much to suggest they'll improve this year. Which isn't to say they're bad, they just aren't on the level they used to be, and they are beatable. They do have athletes though. They also have what the French call a certain... I don't know what, but whatever it is, it comes from being a program that has been really good for a long time. They don't have much at quarterback though and that will cost them a few games this year. And their defense didn't play nearly as well as I thought it would.

Now, on to some non-SEC stuff.

-The Longhorns, who naturally represent all that is evil and dirty in this world, had an easy win against Wyoming. I didn't see it so I can't comment on much, but my opinion all summer on the Horns' prospects has been this: a very good defense, and an offense that will be better than last year, both running and passing, though still not explosive, which will lead to 9 (most likely) or 10 wins. I felt like this game somewhat went with my predictions. The running game does look better, and t.u. has a few good backs that are each different in style. Two running backs rushed for 100+, which I'm assuming hasn't happened in a very long time for them. The passing game led by Davis Ash still doesn't produce big plays, but at least he protected the ball. That right there is a big reason I see t.u. winning more games this year. I could certainly talk more about them but I feel very dirty right now so let's move on.

-OU looked pretty bad for three quarters against a bad team. Very interesting development. They are still a highly regarded team but I get the sense that they're just teetering on the edge of falling back down to normalcy. I think Bob Stoops is one of the best, so I'll be interested to see how they handle this season. The good news for them is that the Big 12 only has one other school that recruits as well as they do, so they still have as much talent as anyone, although West Virginia's offense appears to be in a league of its own.

-West Virginia came within one missed extra point of scoring 70 points in back to back games, dating back to last year's bowl game. I spent all summer rolling my eyes at how people were overrating WVU. People seemed to only look at the bowl game and assume that WVU scored 70 every week, when in reality they did have a few struggles here and there. Seeing them come right out of the gate this year has changed my opinion on them somewhat, and I now have them winning the Big 12. The only two teams that I think have a chance to slow them down are OU and Texas, and both of those teams have issues of their own. So I have WVU winning the conference with an 11-1 record. Full prediction below.

-Baylor looked great. I know, I know, it was just SMU that they played, but the fact is, they racked up over 600 yards of offense despite losing the Heisman Trophy winner, a wide receiver that went in the first round of the NFL draft, and a running back that set the all-time single season rushing record for their school last year. You'd expect a drop-off, but there was none. I've been high on Baylor this off-season. I have still had them as an 8 or 9 win team even without RG3, because they are still with Art Briles. Briles is an evil genius, and I think we're really going to see that this year as their offense is almost as good as it was last year. Baylor has done a great job of re-inventing themselves, branding themselves as a "cool" football team, wearing flashy uniforms (their basketball team does as well), and having a superstar to help the image. Even with an atrocious defense last year, Baylor won 10 games. This year, they lose a little on offense but their defense should slightly improve, and I have them going 9-3. 

-I can't go without a quick mention of the Houston game against Texas State. WOW. So Houston goes 12-1 last year, loses their coach to Texas A&M, and promptly loses their first game, in which they were favored by about 35 points to a team that just started playing FBS football. All I know is that after seeing that score pop up, I immediately felt even better about the fact that Kevin Sumlin is A&M's coach, because for them to crumble like that in the first game without Sumlin tells me that Sumlin was the key ingredient in Houston's success. Another interesting note from that game is that in the days following, Houston's offensive coordinator Mike Nesbitt resigned. After one game. It's somewhat reminiscent of how Kevin Sumlin, who coached at A&M in 2002, got his first opportunity to be an offensive coordinator. A&M's offense was struggling badly under Dino Babers, and in the middle of the season, R.C. Slocum demoted Babers and promoted Sumlin, and just like that, A&M's offense improved. Scoring went up by 50%, and A&M ended up beating #1 ranked Oklahoma in one of the most memorable games ever at Kyle Field. 10 years later, Sumlin has now ascended to one of the highest levels you can reach, and back at the school he just left, the same thing is essentially happening ... something something circle of life.

Looking ahead to Week 2, from the viewpoint of a degenerate gambler:

-A&M (-2) vs. Florida: I can't really say too much that hasn't already been said about this game. Being the featured game of the week on ESPN, having College Gameday there, it's been talked about plenty. A&M new quarterback, A&M no depth at defensive line, Florida two quarterbacks, A&M home field advantage, blah blah blah. So I'll just go for the old journalistic trick of attempting to make connections to similar situations in the past. Here goes.

In 1989, R.C. Slocum took over and in his very first game, he hosted a top 10 SEC opponent. A&M was coming off of a 7 win season. And in an "I'm here to be reckoned with" statement game, he led his Ags to a 28-16 victory and went on to have a hall of fame coaching career.

Now, Sumlin inherits a team coming off of a 7 win season, and opens the year with a traditional SEC powerhouse at Kyle Field.

The fact is, even with the fact that A&M hasn't played a game yet and Florida has, Sumlin can still come in and make a big, fat statement to the SEC and all of college football and win this first game.

I was a student when A&M's offense was sputtering so badly in 2002 that R.C. demoted Babers mid-season and promoted Sumlin, and Sumlin, with the exact same players and playbook, increased our scoring average by over 50% and led us to an upset of the #1 team in the nation. He's a badass and he has been for a LONG time. He's not going to let the fact that this is the first game affect anything. He's going to go out and lead the team and have them ready. We may win, we may not, but we'll be ready.

In that LSU game in 1989, A&M's Larry Horton returned the opening kickoff of the game for a touchdown. How sweet would it be if Trey Williams did the exact same thing this Saturday...

I believe Sumlin is THE man for our program, and he will announce as much by leading us to a win over Florida. My official pick: A&M- 27, Florida, 24. (It's not one I'd bet on though)

Other gambling picks for the week:

I really like Georgia (-2.5) over Mizzou. 

I like Michigan (-21) over Air Force (assuming Air Force still isn't allowed to use planes).

I like Ohio State (-18) over Central Florida.

I like Miami (+7) over Kansas State, and would probably also throw a bet down on the moneyline for Miami, because I think there's a great shot they'll win the game.

I like Iowa State (+5) over Iowa and again, would consider a moneyline bet on ISU.

I like New Mexico (+38) against t.u. I think t.u. will easily win, of course, but they don't have the type of offense to cover very many 38 point spreads.

I like Louisiana Tech (-3.5) over Houston. 

I like Nebraska (-6) over UCLA. 

That's it. I may add some over/unders but haven't really looked at them yet. Last week, I didn't post picks here but I went 5-2 on picks against the spread posted on another website. They were:

Baylor (-9)- win
Baylor (OVER)- win
Michigan (+14)- loss
Boise (UNDER)- win
Stanford (-24)- loss
Texas State (+36)- win
Wyoming (+31.5)- win

Oh, and I almost forgot. I was going to make a couple predictions. Official prediction for A&M is 8-4 and has been all along for me. Bama wins the SEC and the whole country and maybe even plays an all-star football team from the USSR and beats them too to win the world. In the Big 12, which I still feel most knowledgeable about, I'm going with WVU at 1 loss, OU, t.u., and Baylor with 3 losses, TCU, KSU, and OSU right behind them, and ISU, KU, and Tech all struggling with only 1 or 2 conference wins. I haven't added all that up to make sure the math works, but something in that general vicinity is my prediction.

Literally!

Here's another funny example of people using the word "literally" wrong.

I was listening to the Baylor broadcast of their basketball game against Texas on Saturday. As Texas got the ball for the first time, apparently one of Baylor's defenders was guarding Longhorn J'Covan Brown very closely. So closely, in fact, that Baylor's color commentator said something along these lines: "You can see early on what Baylor's strategy is with J'Covan Brown, as the Baylor defender was literally in Brown's uniform with him."

That was one time I really regretted having to listen on the radio. Would have loved to see that.

A&M-t.u. tidbits and football talk

I'm not even going to go into any depth about how big a game this is (despite both teams' mediocre records) and how special this rivalry is (very) and all the happy memories I have of A&M vs. t.u. on Thanksgiving night (many), because there's just too much to say if I go down those roads. I could go on and on and on... so I won't. I will, however, share some numbers that I find interesting and a little bit on how I *think* the game will unfold.

So, in no particular order and with no particular format in mind, here goes.

-Ryan Swope has already broken A&M's single season record for catches and yards, and is one touchdown away from tying the record for touchdown catches. He has one year left, and has become a heck of a weapon for A&M.

-Jeff Fuller, despite having a very bad run of dropped passes this year, has still put up numbers that would be solid if they were coming from someone who hadn't been expected to do so much more. With two games to play, he has 56 catches and over 600 yards. Not anywhere near what we expected out of him, but not as bad as many Aggie fans think.

-Cyrus Gray might play... or might not. Nobody knows, and I think that's exactly how Mike Sherman wants it at this point. But the Aggies need him. He's only the third Aggie ever to have back to back 1,000 yard rushing seasons, and he did it both times despite sharing time in the backfield with Christine Michael. He blocks well, runs well, catches the ball well, and is a team leader. If he's unable to go, A&M's chances go down greatly.

-For the Horns, who have had a lot of good running backs but have not had much success there in the last few years, they are fighting injuries at the position. I have no idea how hurt they are, but as far as I know, none of them are 100%. Texas hasn't had a 1,000 yard rusher in a few years, and unless Malcom Brown can go off in his last three games, they'll be shut out again in that category.

WHAT DOES EACH TEAM DO WELL?

Texas: Defense. They lead the conference in basically every category. They are the best defense A&M has played this year and it's not even close. That said, they can still be torched. OU passed for 300 yards on them... in the first half. They're good, but they aren't Alabama or LSU.

A&M: Moving the ball on offense. A&M is going to set the all-time school record for total offense and for scoring offense. That said, they still disappear for stretches and have had well-documented problems putting points on the board in the second half of games this year.

WHAT DOES EACH TEAM SUCK AT?

Texas: Passing the ball on offense. It's pretty amazing that Texas is this bad, considering their recruiting power. They are #9 (out of 10) in the conference in passing efficiency, and are the only team in the conference who has thrown as many interceptions as they have touchdowns. Their quarterbacks get sacked a lot and are inaccurate.

A&M: Turnover margin. Even after having their best game of the year last Saturday against Kansas, A&M still ranks dead last in the conference in forcing turnovers. Also, red zone defense. In 2010, A&M ranked 4th in the country in red zone defense. 2011? 92nd.

OTHER THOUGHTS:

Texas: They aren't a horrible running team. They have a group of running backs that are decent, though not great. If A&M can stop the run, they should win fairly easily. And you'd think A&M has a chance of doing that, as A&M ranks 5th in the nation in yards per carry defense.

A&M: The offensive line for the Ags has been very good this year, and it needs to play well against a good Texas defense. A&M has only allowed 7 sacks all year and has gotten roughly 2,000 yards from the two-headed monster at tailback.

Texas: This year it is well known that they will run a handful of trick plays and are constantly trying to create confusion for opposing defenses by using lot of pre-snap shifting and motion. With a short week for the Aggie defense to prepare, A&M must be focused and mistake-free when getting set before each snap.

A&M: The Aggies have been dropping passes all year. WAY too many. Not just Jeff Fuller, either. All of them. A&M must clean this up, because against a solid defense like Texas, you can't miss out on any chance to make a play.

OTHER STATS WORTH NOTING:

-A&M and Texas both have a punt return touchdown this year. A&M also has a blocked field goal for a touchdown. I'm not sure if Texas has any other special teams touchdowns.

-A&M and Texas both have excellent kickers. Both teams can feel very confident about at least getting three points once they get inside the 30 yard line.

-Games involving Texas A&M have more plays run than any other team in America. A&M is #2 in the nation in total plays per game on offense, and second to last in the nation in total plays per game faced on defense.

-Meaningless, but interesting: Texas opponents this year have only missed one field goal.

-Texas is average, and A&M is below average, when it comes to penalties.

-A&M is 12th in the country in yards per rush, while Texas is 35th.

-On the flip side, A&M and Texas defense are both in the top 15 nationally in yards per rush defense.

-Texas is 6th in the country in yards per pass defense. A&M's offense is is 58th in yards per pass. Advantage Texas.

-A&M's yards per pass defense is ranked 73rd, while Texas' offense is 67th.

-A&M leads the nation in total sacks and sacks per game.

-A&M gets sacked once every 63 passes it tries. Texas gets sacked once every 12. A&M sacks their opponent once every 11 passes. That, along with the stat above, are advantage A&M.

-Texas is 104th in the nation in opponent's kickoff return average.

-Texas is 16th in the country in 3rd down defense. A&M is 19th in the country in 3rd down offense. Push.

-A&M is 81st in the country in 3rd down defense. Texas is 33rd in the country in 3rd down offense.

-A&M is 22nd in the country in offensive yards per play. Texas is 9th in the country in defensive yards per play allowed.

-Texas is 67th in the country in offensive yards per play. A&M is 33rd in the country in defensive yards per play allowed.

-Texas has not had a play all year that gained over 60 yards.

SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Well, A&M is favored by about 7. And they're favored for a reason. Texas is a very flawed team, at least offensively. That said, A&M has been a big disappointment, as we all know. If A&M had won 3 of these close games and were 9-2, they'd be favored by 15-20.

So that said, A&M should win, at least if Cyrus is able to play. It should go down this way: Texas struggles to move the ball and struggles to score. When they are forced to pass, A&M pressures the QB and Texas is unable to do much. On the other side, A&M will have a tough time as well, but since A&M actually does have a credible offense, both running and passing, it will be good for a few scoring drives. If all goes like the stats say they should, I'd say A&M should win, maybe 24-13 or something.

Obviously anything can happen in college football. That's proven every week. One thing I'm confident of is that this will be a fairly low scoring game. If you're a betting man, bet the under (I think it's 54). I find it very unlikely that this score will even approach 50.

For A&M, I think this game will come down to Tannehill's ability to avoid turning the ball over, and our receivers' ability to catch the ball. If A&M does those things, I think the Ags win. If not, it's anybody's game.

A Quick OU/Texas prediction

I was one of the few Aggies to predict t.u. would start 4-0. Well, they did, thanks to a comically easy schedule in September. One reason I thought they'd win their first four, including two games against opponents that beat them last year, was that last year's losses were usually caused by turnovers, and the law of averages said that t.u. wouldn't have such bad luck two years in a row. Not to say their losses last year were due to luck alone- they were a terrible offensive team- but they weren't as bad a team as their record suggested. Well, as I guessed, the turnovers have gone Bevo's way this year, and they're undefeated.  For now.

I also predicted that after the hot start, OU and OSU would demolish t.u., sending them to an eventual 7,8 or 9 (if they get REALLY lucky) win season. Well, slaughter day is upon the sips. Good for them for improving (brick by brick, if you have never watched ESPN), but despite their ridiculous 10/11 ranking, they are nowhere near ready to beat a team like OU.

Of course anything can happen, but I'll say right now that if t.u. somehow wins, it would be an EPIC upset. OU is favored by about 10 in Vegas, but I just can't see the sips keeping it that close. I'm predicting 42-17.

Ill write about the A&M game this afternoon.