Here's another funny example of people using the word "literally" wrong.
I was listening to the Baylor broadcast of their basketball game against Texas on Saturday. As Texas got the ball for the first time, apparently one of Baylor's defenders was guarding Longhorn J'Covan Brown very closely. So closely, in fact, that Baylor's color commentator said something along these lines: "You can see early on what Baylor's strategy is with J'Covan Brown, as the Baylor defender was literally in Brown's uniform with him."
That was one time I really regretted having to listen on the radio. Would have loved to see that.
Showing posts with label University of Texas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label University of Texas. Show all posts
Monday, January 30, 2012
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
December/January wrap up, random stuff
First, a deer season wrap up. The deer hunting was pretty lame in Llano this year. I'm sure the drought and then the October rain had something to do with it, but I only saw one deer all year that was bigger than 4 points (a 9 pointer that I let walk), and basically never saw a big doe all season.
Nevertheless, I did get some meat for the freezer on my last hunting weekend of the year, killing a young spike. I also found some really cool scrapes this year, which is always fun.
Anyway, I hunted 4 weekends in Llano this year, along with a trip to Kansas with Dad to chase a bigger deer. Unfortunately we had no luck there either, but it was a ton of fun regardless.
Now for a few tear-filled football thoughts. Sadly, I was right in my thoughts about the A&M-t.u. game in the sense that sure enough, t.u.'s offense was wretched and horrible and the only way A&M could lose was to turn the ball over. Sure enough, A&M turned the ball over too much and lost a game they never should have lost to a far inferior team. Very, very disappointing for me personally, as that game ranked #2 all time for me in games I desperately wanted A&M to win. The '99 Bonfire game was #1 on that list, and as logic would dictate, since A&M won the game in '99, this game in 2011 was the single most disappointing sports event of my life, and I have watched and loved sports (far too passionately) for a long, long time. I've just never been so despondent and forlorn (The phrase "despondent and forlorn" is something I use quite often because it sounds funny and eloquent at the same time. I stole it from comedian Dennis Regan, who is Brian Regan's brother.). So yeah, seriously one of the worst nights of my 32 years on this earth, as far as the final outcome is concerned. It didn't help that Cyrus Gray didn't get to play. Based on the football season as a whole (including the injuries and the heartbreaking losses) and the early results from basketball as well, it seems that as a trade off for going to the SEC, A&M had to sacrifice their 2011-12 seasons to the gods of bitter teasips. I suppose it might end up being a good trade in the long run, but it's been painful this year.
I had a lot of other football thoughts over the last two months but now they are escaping me. Perhaps I'll find the time and energy to add them later.
For Christmas this year we spent Christmas Eve at Molly's mom's house, along with Paul. Then the next morning we went and opened presents at my parents' house before heading to San Antonio for lunch with Gran Gran. Rebecca, Adam, and Annika were all there, as well as Uncle Bill.
The hunting trip to Kansas was my big present so I didn't get many physical presents from Mom and Dad, but I did get a book or two, a movie, a gun case type thing, and from Molly I got some nice shoes, a nice shirt, a replica of Kyle Field, and a few other things.
For New Year's Eve, we went to Travis and Kim's, and had a lot of fun with our little group of 8. Bethany and Sarah went home early to feed babies, but the rest of us stayed and tried some various tasty (and not so tasty) alcoholic concoctions. Helpful tip: there's really no need to ever drink anything called "moonshine."
A lot of the time in between all of these things has been spent watching tons of football, and I do believe that this year, taking the whole of both college and pro football (heck, and Texas high school football, with Jonathan Gray and Trey Williams), has been an incredible year of football. We've gotten to see both incredible defense (Bama) and the continued evolution of spread offenses that has led to insanely high scoring games like the Alamo Bowl (and basically every other game played by Baylor), with lots of amazing close games in both college and pro football. I really think that, taking out my disappointment over A&M's 7-6 season, this has been probably the most enjoyable football season, from my perspective as a fan with pretty broad interest, of my entire life. Wisconsin/Oregon, Baylor/Washington, WVU/Clemson, Georgia/MichSt, OkSt/Stanford, Michigan/VT, and on and on and on were great theater, and those are just the bowl games. Here's hoping 2012 is just as exciting.
Here are some quick, random football thoughts that I've had recently, many of which could warrant several paragraphs but for now will just be quick hitters:
-RGIII was amazing and deserved the Heisman, but what really stands out to me when I look at Baylor's stats is running back Terrance Ganaway. He only ran for 295 yards last year, then out of nowhere, ran for over 1500 yards to easily lead the conference. Very impressive year.
-With the 12 games schedules, bowls, and conference championships, a decent team will play a minimum of 13 and sometimes 14 games in a season. 10 wins used to be a benchmark of a really good season. It appears that that is no longer the case. Proof: 23 of the 25 teams that finished ranked this year won at least 10 games. So basically, winning 10 games is akin to finishing ranked. It used to mean you only lost 1 or 2 games all year and finished in the top 10. Now you can have a 10 win season that included 4 losses. There's nothing special about that. I think the new benchmark for a really good season should be 11 or 12 wins.
-Jeff Fuller finally put it together for A&M in his final two games, against Texas and Northwestern. He fought injuries all season and somehow that also led to lots of drops, but he came back with two straight 100 yard games to end his career. I was one who was on his side all season. Lots of Aggie fans bailed on him. Glad to see him go out on a high note.
-Don't be shocked when Ryan Tannehill goes high- very high- in the NFL draft this year. I've said it before and it's coming true. One draft expert this week already said he's a likely top 10 pick. Do I think he's that great? No, I really don't. I like him and think he has some real potential, but personally I don't see him being worth a top 10 pick. The thing is, the NFL has gone full-on crazy with quarterbacks, and has proven over and over that they are just dying to give away their money and overpay. As soon as last year's first round concluded, I knew Ryan Tannehill would go very high in this year's draft, because teams proved that they will value quarterbacks over any other position, even if they aren't that great (Christian Ponder). Bill Simmons of ESPN has a thing where he always talks about how basketball teams need a G.M. of common sense. So many stupid moves get made, so much money gets thrown at average players or old players or unproven players, there's no common sense involved. Same thing applies in the NFL with quarterbacks. Nothing against Tannehill, but he'll likely be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
-A&M's new defensive coordinator will apparently be running a 4-3 defense. Like many Aggies who grew up on the days of the Wrecking Crew and the 3-4 defense, I'm a little sad to say goodbye to the 3-4 (actually a lot sad), but the good news is, much like offenses, defenses are quite multiple these days, and in all honesty, most of the time, the casual fan won't really notice a difference, and the obvious truth is that we just want the defense to be good.
Nevertheless, I did get some meat for the freezer on my last hunting weekend of the year, killing a young spike. I also found some really cool scrapes this year, which is always fun.
Anyway, I hunted 4 weekends in Llano this year, along with a trip to Kansas with Dad to chase a bigger deer. Unfortunately we had no luck there either, but it was a ton of fun regardless.
Now for a few tear-filled football thoughts. Sadly, I was right in my thoughts about the A&M-t.u. game in the sense that sure enough, t.u.'s offense was wretched and horrible and the only way A&M could lose was to turn the ball over. Sure enough, A&M turned the ball over too much and lost a game they never should have lost to a far inferior team. Very, very disappointing for me personally, as that game ranked #2 all time for me in games I desperately wanted A&M to win. The '99 Bonfire game was #1 on that list, and as logic would dictate, since A&M won the game in '99, this game in 2011 was the single most disappointing sports event of my life, and I have watched and loved sports (far too passionately) for a long, long time. I've just never been so despondent and forlorn (The phrase "despondent and forlorn" is something I use quite often because it sounds funny and eloquent at the same time. I stole it from comedian Dennis Regan, who is Brian Regan's brother.). So yeah, seriously one of the worst nights of my 32 years on this earth, as far as the final outcome is concerned. It didn't help that Cyrus Gray didn't get to play. Based on the football season as a whole (including the injuries and the heartbreaking losses) and the early results from basketball as well, it seems that as a trade off for going to the SEC, A&M had to sacrifice their 2011-12 seasons to the gods of bitter teasips. I suppose it might end up being a good trade in the long run, but it's been painful this year.
I had a lot of other football thoughts over the last two months but now they are escaping me. Perhaps I'll find the time and energy to add them later.
For Christmas this year we spent Christmas Eve at Molly's mom's house, along with Paul. Then the next morning we went and opened presents at my parents' house before heading to San Antonio for lunch with Gran Gran. Rebecca, Adam, and Annika were all there, as well as Uncle Bill.
The hunting trip to Kansas was my big present so I didn't get many physical presents from Mom and Dad, but I did get a book or two, a movie, a gun case type thing, and from Molly I got some nice shoes, a nice shirt, a replica of Kyle Field, and a few other things.
For New Year's Eve, we went to Travis and Kim's, and had a lot of fun with our little group of 8. Bethany and Sarah went home early to feed babies, but the rest of us stayed and tried some various tasty (and not so tasty) alcoholic concoctions. Helpful tip: there's really no need to ever drink anything called "moonshine."
A lot of the time in between all of these things has been spent watching tons of football, and I do believe that this year, taking the whole of both college and pro football (heck, and Texas high school football, with Jonathan Gray and Trey Williams), has been an incredible year of football. We've gotten to see both incredible defense (Bama) and the continued evolution of spread offenses that has led to insanely high scoring games like the Alamo Bowl (and basically every other game played by Baylor), with lots of amazing close games in both college and pro football. I really think that, taking out my disappointment over A&M's 7-6 season, this has been probably the most enjoyable football season, from my perspective as a fan with pretty broad interest, of my entire life. Wisconsin/Oregon, Baylor/Washington, WVU/Clemson, Georgia/MichSt, OkSt/Stanford, Michigan/VT, and on and on and on were great theater, and those are just the bowl games. Here's hoping 2012 is just as exciting.
Here are some quick, random football thoughts that I've had recently, many of which could warrant several paragraphs but for now will just be quick hitters:
-RGIII was amazing and deserved the Heisman, but what really stands out to me when I look at Baylor's stats is running back Terrance Ganaway. He only ran for 295 yards last year, then out of nowhere, ran for over 1500 yards to easily lead the conference. Very impressive year.
-With the 12 games schedules, bowls, and conference championships, a decent team will play a minimum of 13 and sometimes 14 games in a season. 10 wins used to be a benchmark of a really good season. It appears that that is no longer the case. Proof: 23 of the 25 teams that finished ranked this year won at least 10 games. So basically, winning 10 games is akin to finishing ranked. It used to mean you only lost 1 or 2 games all year and finished in the top 10. Now you can have a 10 win season that included 4 losses. There's nothing special about that. I think the new benchmark for a really good season should be 11 or 12 wins.
-Jeff Fuller finally put it together for A&M in his final two games, against Texas and Northwestern. He fought injuries all season and somehow that also led to lots of drops, but he came back with two straight 100 yard games to end his career. I was one who was on his side all season. Lots of Aggie fans bailed on him. Glad to see him go out on a high note.
-Don't be shocked when Ryan Tannehill goes high- very high- in the NFL draft this year. I've said it before and it's coming true. One draft expert this week already said he's a likely top 10 pick. Do I think he's that great? No, I really don't. I like him and think he has some real potential, but personally I don't see him being worth a top 10 pick. The thing is, the NFL has gone full-on crazy with quarterbacks, and has proven over and over that they are just dying to give away their money and overpay. As soon as last year's first round concluded, I knew Ryan Tannehill would go very high in this year's draft, because teams proved that they will value quarterbacks over any other position, even if they aren't that great (Christian Ponder). Bill Simmons of ESPN has a thing where he always talks about how basketball teams need a G.M. of common sense. So many stupid moves get made, so much money gets thrown at average players or old players or unproven players, there's no common sense involved. Same thing applies in the NFL with quarterbacks. Nothing against Tannehill, but he'll likely be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
-A&M's new defensive coordinator will apparently be running a 4-3 defense. Like many Aggies who grew up on the days of the Wrecking Crew and the 3-4 defense, I'm a little sad to say goodbye to the 3-4 (actually a lot sad), but the good news is, much like offenses, defenses are quite multiple these days, and in all honesty, most of the time, the casual fan won't really notice a difference, and the obvious truth is that we just want the defense to be good.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
A&M-t.u. tidbits and football talk
I'm not even going to go into any depth about how big a game this is (despite both teams' mediocre records) and how special this rivalry is (very) and all the happy memories I have of A&M vs. t.u. on Thanksgiving night (many), because there's just too much to say if I go down those roads. I could go on and on and on... so I won't. I will, however, share some numbers that I find interesting and a little bit on how I *think* the game will unfold.
So, in no particular order and with no particular format in mind, here goes.
-Ryan Swope has already broken A&M's single season record for catches and yards, and is one touchdown away from tying the record for touchdown catches. He has one year left, and has become a heck of a weapon for A&M.
-Jeff Fuller, despite having a very bad run of dropped passes this year, has still put up numbers that would be solid if they were coming from someone who hadn't been expected to do so much more. With two games to play, he has 56 catches and over 600 yards. Not anywhere near what we expected out of him, but not as bad as many Aggie fans think.
-Cyrus Gray might play... or might not. Nobody knows, and I think that's exactly how Mike Sherman wants it at this point. But the Aggies need him. He's only the third Aggie ever to have back to back 1,000 yard rushing seasons, and he did it both times despite sharing time in the backfield with Christine Michael. He blocks well, runs well, catches the ball well, and is a team leader. If he's unable to go, A&M's chances go down greatly.
-For the Horns, who have had a lot of good running backs but have not had much success there in the last few years, they are fighting injuries at the position. I have no idea how hurt they are, but as far as I know, none of them are 100%. Texas hasn't had a 1,000 yard rusher in a few years, and unless Malcom Brown can go off in his last three games, they'll be shut out again in that category.
WHAT DOES EACH TEAM DO WELL?
Texas: Defense. They lead the conference in basically every category. They are the best defense A&M has played this year and it's not even close. That said, they can still be torched. OU passed for 300 yards on them... in the first half. They're good, but they aren't Alabama or LSU.
A&M: Moving the ball on offense. A&M is going to set the all-time school record for total offense and for scoring offense. That said, they still disappear for stretches and have had well-documented problems putting points on the board in the second half of games this year.
WHAT DOES EACH TEAM SUCK AT?
Texas: Passing the ball on offense. It's pretty amazing that Texas is this bad, considering their recruiting power. They are #9 (out of 10) in the conference in passing efficiency, and are the only team in the conference who has thrown as many interceptions as they have touchdowns. Their quarterbacks get sacked a lot and are inaccurate.
A&M: Turnover margin. Even after having their best game of the year last Saturday against Kansas, A&M still ranks dead last in the conference in forcing turnovers. Also, red zone defense. In 2010, A&M ranked 4th in the country in red zone defense. 2011? 92nd.
OTHER THOUGHTS:
Texas: They aren't a horrible running team. They have a group of running backs that are decent, though not great. If A&M can stop the run, they should win fairly easily. And you'd think A&M has a chance of doing that, as A&M ranks 5th in the nation in yards per carry defense.
A&M: The offensive line for the Ags has been very good this year, and it needs to play well against a good Texas defense. A&M has only allowed 7 sacks all year and has gotten roughly 2,000 yards from the two-headed monster at tailback.
Texas: This year it is well known that they will run a handful of trick plays and are constantly trying to create confusion for opposing defenses by using lot of pre-snap shifting and motion. With a short week for the Aggie defense to prepare, A&M must be focused and mistake-free when getting set before each snap.
A&M: The Aggies have been dropping passes all year. WAY too many. Not just Jeff Fuller, either. All of them. A&M must clean this up, because against a solid defense like Texas, you can't miss out on any chance to make a play.
OTHER STATS WORTH NOTING:
-A&M and Texas both have a punt return touchdown this year. A&M also has a blocked field goal for a touchdown. I'm not sure if Texas has any other special teams touchdowns.
-A&M and Texas both have excellent kickers. Both teams can feel very confident about at least getting three points once they get inside the 30 yard line.
-Games involving Texas A&M have more plays run than any other team in America. A&M is #2 in the nation in total plays per game on offense, and second to last in the nation in total plays per game faced on defense.
-Meaningless, but interesting: Texas opponents this year have only missed one field goal.
-Texas is average, and A&M is below average, when it comes to penalties.
-A&M is 12th in the country in yards per rush, while Texas is 35th.
-On the flip side, A&M and Texas defense are both in the top 15 nationally in yards per rush defense.
-Texas is 6th in the country in yards per pass defense. A&M's offense is is 58th in yards per pass. Advantage Texas.
-A&M's yards per pass defense is ranked 73rd, while Texas' offense is 67th.
-A&M leads the nation in total sacks and sacks per game.
-A&M gets sacked once every 63 passes it tries. Texas gets sacked once every 12. A&M sacks their opponent once every 11 passes. That, along with the stat above, are advantage A&M.
-Texas is 104th in the nation in opponent's kickoff return average.
-Texas is 16th in the country in 3rd down defense. A&M is 19th in the country in 3rd down offense. Push.
-A&M is 81st in the country in 3rd down defense. Texas is 33rd in the country in 3rd down offense.
-A&M is 22nd in the country in offensive yards per play. Texas is 9th in the country in defensive yards per play allowed.
-Texas is 67th in the country in offensive yards per play. A&M is 33rd in the country in defensive yards per play allowed.
-Texas has not had a play all year that gained over 60 yards.
SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Well, A&M is favored by about 7. And they're favored for a reason. Texas is a very flawed team, at least offensively. That said, A&M has been a big disappointment, as we all know. If A&M had won 3 of these close games and were 9-2, they'd be favored by 15-20.
So that said, A&M should win, at least if Cyrus is able to play. It should go down this way: Texas struggles to move the ball and struggles to score. When they are forced to pass, A&M pressures the QB and Texas is unable to do much. On the other side, A&M will have a tough time as well, but since A&M actually does have a credible offense, both running and passing, it will be good for a few scoring drives. If all goes like the stats say they should, I'd say A&M should win, maybe 24-13 or something.
Obviously anything can happen in college football. That's proven every week. One thing I'm confident of is that this will be a fairly low scoring game. If you're a betting man, bet the under (I think it's 54). I find it very unlikely that this score will even approach 50.
For A&M, I think this game will come down to Tannehill's ability to avoid turning the ball over, and our receivers' ability to catch the ball. If A&M does those things, I think the Ags win. If not, it's anybody's game.
So, in no particular order and with no particular format in mind, here goes.
-Ryan Swope has already broken A&M's single season record for catches and yards, and is one touchdown away from tying the record for touchdown catches. He has one year left, and has become a heck of a weapon for A&M.
-Jeff Fuller, despite having a very bad run of dropped passes this year, has still put up numbers that would be solid if they were coming from someone who hadn't been expected to do so much more. With two games to play, he has 56 catches and over 600 yards. Not anywhere near what we expected out of him, but not as bad as many Aggie fans think.
-Cyrus Gray might play... or might not. Nobody knows, and I think that's exactly how Mike Sherman wants it at this point. But the Aggies need him. He's only the third Aggie ever to have back to back 1,000 yard rushing seasons, and he did it both times despite sharing time in the backfield with Christine Michael. He blocks well, runs well, catches the ball well, and is a team leader. If he's unable to go, A&M's chances go down greatly.
-For the Horns, who have had a lot of good running backs but have not had much success there in the last few years, they are fighting injuries at the position. I have no idea how hurt they are, but as far as I know, none of them are 100%. Texas hasn't had a 1,000 yard rusher in a few years, and unless Malcom Brown can go off in his last three games, they'll be shut out again in that category.
WHAT DOES EACH TEAM DO WELL?
Texas: Defense. They lead the conference in basically every category. They are the best defense A&M has played this year and it's not even close. That said, they can still be torched. OU passed for 300 yards on them... in the first half. They're good, but they aren't Alabama or LSU.
A&M: Moving the ball on offense. A&M is going to set the all-time school record for total offense and for scoring offense. That said, they still disappear for stretches and have had well-documented problems putting points on the board in the second half of games this year.
WHAT DOES EACH TEAM SUCK AT?
Texas: Passing the ball on offense. It's pretty amazing that Texas is this bad, considering their recruiting power. They are #9 (out of 10) in the conference in passing efficiency, and are the only team in the conference who has thrown as many interceptions as they have touchdowns. Their quarterbacks get sacked a lot and are inaccurate.
A&M: Turnover margin. Even after having their best game of the year last Saturday against Kansas, A&M still ranks dead last in the conference in forcing turnovers. Also, red zone defense. In 2010, A&M ranked 4th in the country in red zone defense. 2011? 92nd.
OTHER THOUGHTS:
Texas: They aren't a horrible running team. They have a group of running backs that are decent, though not great. If A&M can stop the run, they should win fairly easily. And you'd think A&M has a chance of doing that, as A&M ranks 5th in the nation in yards per carry defense.
A&M: The offensive line for the Ags has been very good this year, and it needs to play well against a good Texas defense. A&M has only allowed 7 sacks all year and has gotten roughly 2,000 yards from the two-headed monster at tailback.
Texas: This year it is well known that they will run a handful of trick plays and are constantly trying to create confusion for opposing defenses by using lot of pre-snap shifting and motion. With a short week for the Aggie defense to prepare, A&M must be focused and mistake-free when getting set before each snap.
A&M: The Aggies have been dropping passes all year. WAY too many. Not just Jeff Fuller, either. All of them. A&M must clean this up, because against a solid defense like Texas, you can't miss out on any chance to make a play.
OTHER STATS WORTH NOTING:
-A&M and Texas both have a punt return touchdown this year. A&M also has a blocked field goal for a touchdown. I'm not sure if Texas has any other special teams touchdowns.
-A&M and Texas both have excellent kickers. Both teams can feel very confident about at least getting three points once they get inside the 30 yard line.
-Games involving Texas A&M have more plays run than any other team in America. A&M is #2 in the nation in total plays per game on offense, and second to last in the nation in total plays per game faced on defense.
-Meaningless, but interesting: Texas opponents this year have only missed one field goal.
-Texas is average, and A&M is below average, when it comes to penalties.
-A&M is 12th in the country in yards per rush, while Texas is 35th.
-On the flip side, A&M and Texas defense are both in the top 15 nationally in yards per rush defense.
-Texas is 6th in the country in yards per pass defense. A&M's offense is is 58th in yards per pass. Advantage Texas.
-A&M's yards per pass defense is ranked 73rd, while Texas' offense is 67th.
-A&M leads the nation in total sacks and sacks per game.
-A&M gets sacked once every 63 passes it tries. Texas gets sacked once every 12. A&M sacks their opponent once every 11 passes. That, along with the stat above, are advantage A&M.
-Texas is 104th in the nation in opponent's kickoff return average.
-Texas is 16th in the country in 3rd down defense. A&M is 19th in the country in 3rd down offense. Push.
-A&M is 81st in the country in 3rd down defense. Texas is 33rd in the country in 3rd down offense.
-A&M is 22nd in the country in offensive yards per play. Texas is 9th in the country in defensive yards per play allowed.
-Texas is 67th in the country in offensive yards per play. A&M is 33rd in the country in defensive yards per play allowed.
-Texas has not had a play all year that gained over 60 yards.
SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Well, A&M is favored by about 7. And they're favored for a reason. Texas is a very flawed team, at least offensively. That said, A&M has been a big disappointment, as we all know. If A&M had won 3 of these close games and were 9-2, they'd be favored by 15-20.
So that said, A&M should win, at least if Cyrus is able to play. It should go down this way: Texas struggles to move the ball and struggles to score. When they are forced to pass, A&M pressures the QB and Texas is unable to do much. On the other side, A&M will have a tough time as well, but since A&M actually does have a credible offense, both running and passing, it will be good for a few scoring drives. If all goes like the stats say they should, I'd say A&M should win, maybe 24-13 or something.
Obviously anything can happen in college football. That's proven every week. One thing I'm confident of is that this will be a fairly low scoring game. If you're a betting man, bet the under (I think it's 54). I find it very unlikely that this score will even approach 50.
For A&M, I think this game will come down to Tannehill's ability to avoid turning the ball over, and our receivers' ability to catch the ball. If A&M does those things, I think the Ags win. If not, it's anybody's game.
Friday, September 16, 2011
A short look ahead to some week 3 college football action
It's been a fun start to 2011 college football. There are some great games coming up this weekend. I'm particularly excited for the Oklahoma vs. Florida State matchup, though I won't be able to watch it since I'll be at Kyle Field watching the Aggies destroy Idaho. But I think this is a good chance for OU to show that they are legit, and I think they will do so. They are favored by about a field goal, but I think they'll cover and win by seven or more. There are lots of reports out of Tallahassee about the amount of young talent they have, and I don't doubt it, but it's still young. Give them another year or two and we might see them contending for a championship. For now, OU wins.
Many people will be interested in the Texas - UCLA matchup. I think Texas wins this one pretty easily, actually. Benching Garrett Gilbert was one of the easiest paths to improvement for the Horns, and now that they have finally done that, they can at least move forward as an offense. They'll still have to be creative to find ways to hide Ash and McCoy's inexperience, but Harsin is a creative guy. Throw in the fact that it seems that Malcom Brown is ready to take over as the lead running back (which is the obvious choice- he's far superior to any of their other running backs), and they will now have a new pep in their step. Oh, and UCLA is an awful, awful team. Texas wins easily.
Other big name games include Ohio State and Miami (come on, no one has a clue what will happen there), Tennessee and Florida (two teams looking to get back to past glory), Notre Dame and Michigan State (can Notre Dame finally win one of these crazy games?), and of course the always heated Buffalo versus Ball State matchup (just kidding, those are completely made up teams).
As for A&M, they are favored by 5 touchdowns against Idaho in what should be an easy tune up. Obviously you still have to take every opponent seriously, but Idaho shouldn't offer much resistance to the efficient Aggie offense. A&M kept things admittedly conservative against SMU, but with Oklahoma State looming, I'd hope the Aggies open things up just a bit more to work out any kinks that need working out. Official prediction: I'll go with A&M winning 51-14.
Many people will be interested in the Texas - UCLA matchup. I think Texas wins this one pretty easily, actually. Benching Garrett Gilbert was one of the easiest paths to improvement for the Horns, and now that they have finally done that, they can at least move forward as an offense. They'll still have to be creative to find ways to hide Ash and McCoy's inexperience, but Harsin is a creative guy. Throw in the fact that it seems that Malcom Brown is ready to take over as the lead running back (which is the obvious choice- he's far superior to any of their other running backs), and they will now have a new pep in their step. Oh, and UCLA is an awful, awful team. Texas wins easily.
Other big name games include Ohio State and Miami (come on, no one has a clue what will happen there), Tennessee and Florida (two teams looking to get back to past glory), Notre Dame and Michigan State (can Notre Dame finally win one of these crazy games?), and of course the always heated Buffalo versus Ball State matchup (just kidding, those are completely made up teams).
As for A&M, they are favored by 5 touchdowns against Idaho in what should be an easy tune up. Obviously you still have to take every opponent seriously, but Idaho shouldn't offer much resistance to the efficient Aggie offense. A&M kept things admittedly conservative against SMU, but with Oklahoma State looming, I'd hope the Aggies open things up just a bit more to work out any kinks that need working out. Official prediction: I'll go with A&M winning 51-14.
Watty's Week 3 College Football computer picks
Here are my computer formula-based picks for week 3 of the college football season. I'm still using 2010 stats plus 2011, so a lot of these are still meaningless, but there still isn't enough 2011 data for that be meaningful on its own. Maybe after a couple more weeks. So here are the picks, along with the Vegas lines as of Tuesday.
Prediction Vegas line
LSU 27 -4/49.5
Mississippi State 28
Boise State 42 -20/60.5
Toledo 23
Iowa State 17
Connecticut 20 -4/43.5
West Virginia 20
Maryland 27 0/57
Auburn 50
Clemson 28 -3.5/61.5
Pittsburgh 21
Iowa 30 -3/50.5
Akron 9
Cincinnati 34 -34.5/56.5
Wyoming 17
Bowling Green 17 -9.5/54.5
Eastern Michigan 19
Michigan 53 -28.5/63
Penn State 19 -6.5/44.5
Temple 21
Central Michigan 17
Western Michigan 24 -7.5/55.5
Mississippi 30 -2/47
Vanderbilt 25
Duke 17
Boston College 19 -7/47.5
Kansas 20
Georgia Tech 36 -14.5/61
Colorado State 21
Colorado 29 -7/50
Wisconsin 44 -16.5/64
Northern Illinois 38
Miami (Ohio) 17
Minnesota 22 -5/46.5
Tennessee 29
Florida 33 -9.5/51
Michigan State 27
Notre Dame 27 -4.5/51.5
Virginia 25
North Carolina 31 -10/48
Texas 26 -4/43.5
UCLA 22
Washington 21
Nebraska 38 -17/55
Texas Tech 43 -21/55.5
New Mexico 12
Northwestern 25 -7/54.5
Army 23
Tulane 20
UAB 27 -13/54
Navy 32
South Carolina 40 -16.5/58
Washington State 25
San Diego State 41 -5/58
Louisville 24
Kentucky 36 -5.5/41
Houston 34 -6.5/70.5
Louisiana Tech 25
Marshall 13
Ohio 20 -.3/47.5
Idaho 16
Texas A&M 37 -35.5/57.5
Buffalo 11
Ball State 14 -4.5/52
Arizona State 35
Illinois 33 -1/59
Kent State 12
Kansas State 31 -17.5/46.5
Syracuse 19
USC 31 -16.5/47
Oklahoma 35 -3.5/55
Florida State 31
UTEP 23
New Mexico State 14 -3/49.5
Ohio State 35
Miami (Florida) 27 -2.5/47.5
Utah 25
BYU 21 -3.5/46
Oklahoma State 61 -13.5/69
Tulsa 38
Hawai'i 43 -20/59
UNLV 16
Stanford 46 -9/54.5
Arizona 33
Louisiana-Monroe 13
TCU 39 -29/52
Arkansas State 22
Virginia Tech 36 -24/53
UCF 26 -5.5/51
Florida International 21
North Texas 15
Alabama 54 -46/53.5
Troy 27
Arkansas 62 -22.5/63.5
Prediction Vegas line
LSU 27 -4/49.5
Mississippi State 28
Boise State 42 -20/60.5
Toledo 23
Iowa State 17
Connecticut 20 -4/43.5
West Virginia 20
Maryland 27 0/57
Auburn 50
Clemson 28 -3.5/61.5
Pittsburgh 21
Iowa 30 -3/50.5
Akron 9
Cincinnati 34 -34.5/56.5
Wyoming 17
Bowling Green 17 -9.5/54.5
Eastern Michigan 19
Michigan 53 -28.5/63
Penn State 19 -6.5/44.5
Temple 21
Central Michigan 17
Western Michigan 24 -7.5/55.5
Mississippi 30 -2/47
Vanderbilt 25
Duke 17
Boston College 19 -7/47.5
Kansas 20
Georgia Tech 36 -14.5/61
Colorado State 21
Colorado 29 -7/50
Wisconsin 44 -16.5/64
Northern Illinois 38
Miami (Ohio) 17
Minnesota 22 -5/46.5
Tennessee 29
Florida 33 -9.5/51
Michigan State 27
Notre Dame 27 -4.5/51.5
Virginia 25
North Carolina 31 -10/48
Texas 26 -4/43.5
UCLA 22
Washington 21
Nebraska 38 -17/55
Texas Tech 43 -21/55.5
New Mexico 12
Northwestern 25 -7/54.5
Army 23
Tulane 20
UAB 27 -13/54
Navy 32
South Carolina 40 -16.5/58
Washington State 25
San Diego State 41 -5/58
Louisville 24
Kentucky 36 -5.5/41
Houston 34 -6.5/70.5
Louisiana Tech 25
Marshall 13
Ohio 20 -.3/47.5
Idaho 16
Texas A&M 37 -35.5/57.5
Buffalo 11
Ball State 14 -4.5/52
Arizona State 35
Illinois 33 -1/59
Kent State 12
Kansas State 31 -17.5/46.5
Syracuse 19
USC 31 -16.5/47
Oklahoma 35 -3.5/55
Florida State 31
UTEP 23
New Mexico State 14 -3/49.5
Ohio State 35
Miami (Florida) 27 -2.5/47.5
Utah 25
BYU 21 -3.5/46
Oklahoma State 61 -13.5/69
Tulsa 38
Hawai'i 43 -20/59
UNLV 16
Stanford 46 -9/54.5
Arizona 33
Louisiana-Monroe 13
TCU 39 -29/52
Arkansas State 22
Virginia Tech 36 -24/53
UCF 26 -5.5/51
Florida International 21
North Texas 15
Alabama 54 -46/53.5
Troy 27
Arkansas 62 -22.5/63.5
Monday, August 15, 2011
SEC update
Wow, what a crazy week! And we're just getting started.
Basically, everything is still happening as far as "A&M to the SEC" is concerned, but with a few new twists. I had originally written that I thought maybe the 8/22 BOR meeting would be a critical date. Well, after writing that, things sped up in a hurry. A&M basically decided to make their move, and they announced a special BOR meeting for today, 8/15. That will happen later this afternoon.
But to quickly go over what happened over the weekend, it appeared that today's BOR meeting was going to be for the purpose of announcing a done deal. The SEC presidents had a meeting scheduled for yesterday, and many people assumed that it was a meeting to officially approve A&M as a new member.
Well, in the meantime, ESPN, who happens to be partners on a $300 million deal with the University of Texas, spent all of last week both denying the story and flat out spreading false information about the story in an effort to squash the deal. UT, ever the spoiled brat, hired a p.r. firm to launch a smear campaign against A&M and, began exerting political threats and pressure towards A&M, and, with ESPN's help, planted some false stories designed to put doubts into the heads of the few remaining people who could supposedly stop the deal. One of those stories was regarding the issue of the 14th team (the other team the SEC would supposedly add to keep an even number). In reality, this is not and was not ever an issue for the SEC, as they are prepared to spend a year with only 13 teams, but throwing this diversionary story out there proved to be effective for a short time, as it dragged other schools into the story and created the perception that not only was the A&M invitation conditional on other factors (false), that this move was the beginning of an immediate and massive shift for the worse in conference realignment (false).
Another interesting thing to watch on Saturday was the all-out hatchet job done on A&M by almost every single on-air personality that ESPN has. If they were on t.v., radio, or Twitter, the message was the same: A&M was greedy, jealous, delusional, and oh by the way, would be a perennial loser in the SEC. It was truly stunning to watch such a coordinated effort. I personally listened to ESPN Radio for a good portion of the morning, watched some t.v. coverage that night, and read every single Twitter post about the issue along with catching up on what I missed by reading Texags.com as they had running tallies of the carnage. ESPN has clearly said goodbye to any and all journalistic credibility they had. Sure, they have their place in the sports world and I will continue to watch them (don't have much of a choice), but people need to know that what they do is not impartial. They are doing editorials, not news. They are "covering" a story that they are literally part of. Massive conflict of interest there.
So anyway, getting back to what happened and what's going to happen, it had appeared that things were all set, and many people expected the SEC to be meeting with the purpose of approving A&M. Then, somewhat out of the blue, the SEC released a statement saying that they are happy with 12 teams, they did not discuss any particular schools, but that if future conditions change, they might still expand. Well once again, the media (especially ESPN) showed no restraint in gleefully reporting that the SEC had "snubbed" A&M, that it was a done deal, that those dumb Aggies didn't even have an invitation! They mocked Texas A&M for the whole afternoon, even writing articles that likened A&M to the high school kid with a crush on a girl who doesn't like him (http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/index?id=6862753) and other sassy articles. Their headline right now even still says "SEC satisfied with alignment; no A&M invite ". Well, the only problem with that headline is that it is totally misleading.
What happened at the SEC meeting, and what a few responsible journalists thankfully reported, was that they met and had a conference call with some attorneys to make sure they aren't breaking any laws (the term "tortuous interference" has been thrown around a million times in the last week) and to protect themselves from a lawsuit. They then released the very carefully worded statement to let people know, on the record, that they are not approaching A&M. Does that mean they don't want A&M? Not remotely. It just means that technically, A&M needs to approach the SEC. And that's where today's BOR meeting for A&M comes in. If they were really saying that they weren't expanding and/or that Texas A&M was not going to be a part of their conference, trust me, they would have worded that statement a LOT differently. Essentially, the SEC was saying that you can't get re-married until you divorce. And that's fine, and A&m knew that going in.
After the supposedly stunning announcement from the SEC, A&M President Loftin released a statement not long after (hmm... almost like he knew exactly what was going to happen...) indicating that the BOR meeting is still on, and that the point of the meeting is still to give him the authority to leave the Big 12, which A&M will be doing. And again, if the deal were really dead, trust me, Loftin would have worded his statement a LOT differently.
Long story short, once A&M leaves, the SEC will (surprise!) welcome A&M with open arms. And a LOT of "journalists" will have a lot of egg on their faces. People in the know don't seem to know exactly when the deal will be official, but it could be as early as Wednesday or it could take a couple more weeks still.
Another thing to keep in mind with all of this, and it's another reason for my confidence that the deal will be done shortly, is that Mike Slive (SEC commissioner), Loftin, and all the people associated with them including their fellow advisors, decision makers and attorneys, these guys are not stupid. Considering the fact that this move almost happened last year, there is a zero percent chance that both sides have not considered all of these issues ahead of time. ZERO. Both sides knew exactly what legal risks were involved. Both sides knew exactly what kind of pettiness to expect from the University of Texas. Both sides knew of the risks with how things could be portrayed in the media, and knowing all that, have been very specific with what they've done, when they've done it, how they've done it, and what they've said about it and who they've said it to. The timing of everything has been orchestrated, and they are not surprised by anything that's happened.
There are a ton of other sides to this story that hopefully I'll get a chance to talk about, including more on the incredibly bad reporting on this story and the issue of whether or not A&M can compete in the big, bad SEC. And I really could go on for thousands of words about the stuff I just wrote briefly about, but it's hard to decide which parts to drone on about and how much detail to go into.
Most of my info has come from Billy Liucci of Texags.com (he's been far and away the most accurate and timely of all the reporters covering the story), a cross section of all the major national and state reporters who cover college football, the message boards at texags.com and my own little brain.
Basically, everything is still happening as far as "A&M to the SEC" is concerned, but with a few new twists. I had originally written that I thought maybe the 8/22 BOR meeting would be a critical date. Well, after writing that, things sped up in a hurry. A&M basically decided to make their move, and they announced a special BOR meeting for today, 8/15. That will happen later this afternoon.
But to quickly go over what happened over the weekend, it appeared that today's BOR meeting was going to be for the purpose of announcing a done deal. The SEC presidents had a meeting scheduled for yesterday, and many people assumed that it was a meeting to officially approve A&M as a new member.
Well, in the meantime, ESPN, who happens to be partners on a $300 million deal with the University of Texas, spent all of last week both denying the story and flat out spreading false information about the story in an effort to squash the deal. UT, ever the spoiled brat, hired a p.r. firm to launch a smear campaign against A&M and, began exerting political threats and pressure towards A&M, and, with ESPN's help, planted some false stories designed to put doubts into the heads of the few remaining people who could supposedly stop the deal. One of those stories was regarding the issue of the 14th team (the other team the SEC would supposedly add to keep an even number). In reality, this is not and was not ever an issue for the SEC, as they are prepared to spend a year with only 13 teams, but throwing this diversionary story out there proved to be effective for a short time, as it dragged other schools into the story and created the perception that not only was the A&M invitation conditional on other factors (false), that this move was the beginning of an immediate and massive shift for the worse in conference realignment (false).
Another interesting thing to watch on Saturday was the all-out hatchet job done on A&M by almost every single on-air personality that ESPN has. If they were on t.v., radio, or Twitter, the message was the same: A&M was greedy, jealous, delusional, and oh by the way, would be a perennial loser in the SEC. It was truly stunning to watch such a coordinated effort. I personally listened to ESPN Radio for a good portion of the morning, watched some t.v. coverage that night, and read every single Twitter post about the issue along with catching up on what I missed by reading Texags.com as they had running tallies of the carnage. ESPN has clearly said goodbye to any and all journalistic credibility they had. Sure, they have their place in the sports world and I will continue to watch them (don't have much of a choice), but people need to know that what they do is not impartial. They are doing editorials, not news. They are "covering" a story that they are literally part of. Massive conflict of interest there.
So anyway, getting back to what happened and what's going to happen, it had appeared that things were all set, and many people expected the SEC to be meeting with the purpose of approving A&M. Then, somewhat out of the blue, the SEC released a statement saying that they are happy with 12 teams, they did not discuss any particular schools, but that if future conditions change, they might still expand. Well once again, the media (especially ESPN) showed no restraint in gleefully reporting that the SEC had "snubbed" A&M, that it was a done deal, that those dumb Aggies didn't even have an invitation! They mocked Texas A&M for the whole afternoon, even writing articles that likened A&M to the high school kid with a crush on a girl who doesn't like him (http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/index?id=6862753) and other sassy articles. Their headline right now even still says "SEC satisfied with alignment; no A&M invite ". Well, the only problem with that headline is that it is totally misleading.
What happened at the SEC meeting, and what a few responsible journalists thankfully reported, was that they met and had a conference call with some attorneys to make sure they aren't breaking any laws (the term "tortuous interference" has been thrown around a million times in the last week) and to protect themselves from a lawsuit. They then released the very carefully worded statement to let people know, on the record, that they are not approaching A&M. Does that mean they don't want A&M? Not remotely. It just means that technically, A&M needs to approach the SEC. And that's where today's BOR meeting for A&M comes in. If they were really saying that they weren't expanding and/or that Texas A&M was not going to be a part of their conference, trust me, they would have worded that statement a LOT differently. Essentially, the SEC was saying that you can't get re-married until you divorce. And that's fine, and A&m knew that going in.
After the supposedly stunning announcement from the SEC, A&M President Loftin released a statement not long after (hmm... almost like he knew exactly what was going to happen...) indicating that the BOR meeting is still on, and that the point of the meeting is still to give him the authority to leave the Big 12, which A&M will be doing. And again, if the deal were really dead, trust me, Loftin would have worded his statement a LOT differently.
Long story short, once A&M leaves, the SEC will (surprise!) welcome A&M with open arms. And a LOT of "journalists" will have a lot of egg on their faces. People in the know don't seem to know exactly when the deal will be official, but it could be as early as Wednesday or it could take a couple more weeks still.
Another thing to keep in mind with all of this, and it's another reason for my confidence that the deal will be done shortly, is that Mike Slive (SEC commissioner), Loftin, and all the people associated with them including their fellow advisors, decision makers and attorneys, these guys are not stupid. Considering the fact that this move almost happened last year, there is a zero percent chance that both sides have not considered all of these issues ahead of time. ZERO. Both sides knew exactly what legal risks were involved. Both sides knew exactly what kind of pettiness to expect from the University of Texas. Both sides knew of the risks with how things could be portrayed in the media, and knowing all that, have been very specific with what they've done, when they've done it, how they've done it, and what they've said about it and who they've said it to. The timing of everything has been orchestrated, and they are not surprised by anything that's happened.
There are a ton of other sides to this story that hopefully I'll get a chance to talk about, including more on the incredibly bad reporting on this story and the issue of whether or not A&M can compete in the big, bad SEC. And I really could go on for thousands of words about the stuff I just wrote briefly about, but it's hard to decide which parts to drone on about and how much detail to go into.
Most of my info has come from Billy Liucci of Texags.com (he's been far and away the most accurate and timely of all the reporters covering the story), a cross section of all the major national and state reporters who cover college football, the message boards at texags.com and my own little brain.
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