First, a deer season wrap up. The deer hunting was pretty lame in Llano this year. I'm sure the drought and then the October rain had something to do with it, but I only saw one deer all year that was bigger than 4 points (a 9 pointer that I let walk), and basically never saw a big doe all season.
Nevertheless, I did get some meat for the freezer on my last hunting weekend of the year, killing a young spike. I also found some really cool scrapes this year, which is always fun.
Anyway, I hunted 4 weekends in Llano this year, along with a trip to Kansas with Dad to chase a bigger deer. Unfortunately we had no luck there either, but it was a ton of fun regardless.
Now for a few tear-filled football thoughts. Sadly, I was right in my thoughts about the A&M-t.u. game in the sense that sure enough, t.u.'s offense was wretched and horrible and the only way A&M could lose was to turn the ball over. Sure enough, A&M turned the ball over too much and lost a game they never should have lost to a far inferior team. Very, very disappointing for me personally, as that game ranked #2 all time for me in games I desperately wanted A&M to win. The '99 Bonfire game was #1 on that list, and as logic would dictate, since A&M won the game in '99, this game in 2011 was the single most disappointing sports event of my life, and I have watched and loved sports (far too passionately) for a long, long time. I've just never been so despondent and forlorn (The phrase "despondent and forlorn" is something I use quite often because it sounds funny and eloquent at the same time. I stole it from comedian Dennis Regan, who is Brian Regan's brother.). So yeah, seriously one of the worst nights of my 32 years on this earth, as far as the final outcome is concerned. It didn't help that Cyrus Gray didn't get to play. Based on the football season as a whole (including the injuries and the heartbreaking losses) and the early results from basketball as well, it seems that as a trade off for going to the SEC, A&M had to sacrifice their 2011-12 seasons to the gods of bitter teasips. I suppose it might end up being a good trade in the long run, but it's been painful this year.
I had a lot of other football thoughts over the last two months but now they are escaping me. Perhaps I'll find the time and energy to add them later.
For Christmas this year we spent Christmas Eve at Molly's mom's house, along with Paul. Then the next morning we went and opened presents at my parents' house before heading to San Antonio for lunch with Gran Gran. Rebecca, Adam, and Annika were all there, as well as Uncle Bill.
The hunting trip to Kansas was my big present so I didn't get many physical presents from Mom and Dad, but I did get a book or two, a movie, a gun case type thing, and from Molly I got some nice shoes, a nice shirt, a replica of Kyle Field, and a few other things.
For New Year's Eve, we went to Travis and Kim's, and had a lot of fun with our little group of 8. Bethany and Sarah went home early to feed babies, but the rest of us stayed and tried some various tasty (and not so tasty) alcoholic concoctions. Helpful tip: there's really no need to ever drink anything called "moonshine."
A lot of the time in between all of these things has been spent watching tons of football, and I do believe that this year, taking the whole of both college and pro football (heck, and Texas high school football, with Jonathan Gray and Trey Williams), has been an incredible year of football. We've gotten to see both incredible defense (Bama) and the continued evolution of spread offenses that has led to insanely high scoring games like the Alamo Bowl (and basically every other game played by Baylor), with lots of amazing close games in both college and pro football. I really think that, taking out my disappointment over A&M's 7-6 season, this has been probably the most enjoyable football season, from my perspective as a fan with pretty broad interest, of my entire life. Wisconsin/Oregon, Baylor/Washington, WVU/Clemson, Georgia/MichSt, OkSt/Stanford, Michigan/VT, and on and on and on were great theater, and those are just the bowl games. Here's hoping 2012 is just as exciting.
Here are some quick, random football thoughts that I've had recently, many of which could warrant several paragraphs but for now will just be quick hitters:
-RGIII was amazing and deserved the Heisman, but what really stands out to me when I look at Baylor's stats is running back Terrance Ganaway. He only ran for 295 yards last year, then out of nowhere, ran for over 1500 yards to easily lead the conference. Very impressive year.
-With the 12 games schedules, bowls, and conference championships, a decent team will play a minimum of 13 and sometimes 14 games in a season. 10 wins used to be a benchmark of a really good season. It appears that that is no longer the case. Proof: 23 of the 25 teams that finished ranked this year won at least 10 games. So basically, winning 10 games is akin to finishing ranked. It used to mean you only lost 1 or 2 games all year and finished in the top 10. Now you can have a 10 win season that included 4 losses. There's nothing special about that. I think the new benchmark for a really good season should be 11 or 12 wins.
-Jeff Fuller finally put it together for A&M in his final two games, against Texas and Northwestern. He fought injuries all season and somehow that also led to lots of drops, but he came back with two straight 100 yard games to end his career. I was one who was on his side all season. Lots of Aggie fans bailed on him. Glad to see him go out on a high note.
-Don't be shocked when Ryan Tannehill goes high- very high- in the NFL draft this year. I've said it before and it's coming true. One draft expert this week already said he's a likely top 10 pick. Do I think he's that great? No, I really don't. I like him and think he has some real potential, but personally I don't see him being worth a top 10 pick. The thing is, the NFL has gone full-on crazy with quarterbacks, and has proven over and over that they are just dying to give away their money and overpay. As soon as last year's first round concluded, I knew Ryan Tannehill would go very high in this year's draft, because teams proved that they will value quarterbacks over any other position, even if they aren't that great (Christian Ponder). Bill Simmons of ESPN has a thing where he always talks about how basketball teams need a G.M. of common sense. So many stupid moves get made, so much money gets thrown at average players or old players or unproven players, there's no common sense involved. Same thing applies in the NFL with quarterbacks. Nothing against Tannehill, but he'll likely be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
-A&M's new defensive coordinator will apparently be running a 4-3 defense. Like many Aggies who grew up on the days of the Wrecking Crew and the 3-4 defense, I'm a little sad to say goodbye to the 3-4 (actually a lot sad), but the good news is, much like offenses, defenses are quite multiple these days, and in all honesty, most of the time, the casual fan won't really notice a difference, and the obvious truth is that we just want the defense to be good.
Showing posts with label top 25. Show all posts
Showing posts with label top 25. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Friday, September 23, 2011
Watty's Week 4 computer picks
Disclaimer I'm still giving for at least another week or two: these numbers still aren't really meaningful for several teams, since I'm still using some of last year's stats. I think after about 5 weeks, this year's numbers will be meaningful and will be the only numbers I use. So again, for some teams, they are pretty good, but for teams with a lot of turnover from last year or with major changes at quarterback or head coach, some of these are still not statistically relevant. That being said, here are the Week 4 picks:
Teams Prediction 1 Prediction 2 Vegas spread
Oklahoma State 31 41
Texas A&M 37 36 -4.5/70
North Carolina State 26 28
Cincinnati 26 35 -7.5/60.5
UCF 17 20
BYU 19 25 -2.5/42.5
Colorado 14 18
Ohio State 36 33 -16.5/44.5
Tulane 27 28
Duke 39 31 -10/55
Toledo 18 20
Syracuse 22 19 -2.5/55
UAB 38 32
East Carolina 34 30 -14/60.5
UTEP 10 12
South Florida 27 27 -29/47.5
Western Michigan 27 27
Illinois 28 36 -12.5/53
Ohio 20 21
Rutgers 11 19 -4.5/50.5
Eastern Michigan 13 12
Penn State 35 29 -28.5/44.5
Kansas State 20 25
Miami (Florida) 31 29 -12/47.5
SMU 36 36 -21.5/54
Memphis 17 16
Temple 19 20
Maryland 18 26 -8.5/51.5
Central Michigan 11 10
Michigan State 29 30 -21.5/49.5
Georgia 45 51 -9/54
Mississippi 27 30
Bowling Green 13 13
Miami (Ohio) 21 18 -4/52.5
Army 21 20 -4/50.5
Ball State 22 20
Virginia Tech 23 27 -20.5/46.5
Marshall 9 15
Arkansas 23 27
Alabama 36 44 -12/50.5
California 26 28
Washington 21 28 -1/58.5
LSU 13 21 -5.5/49.5
West Virginia 17 28
San Diego State 39 39
Michigan 36 36 -10.5/57
North Carolina 41 35
Georgia Tech 50 50 -7/58.5
Florida 21 27 -19.5/44
Kentucky 21 32
Notre Dame 21 24 -7/54.5
Pittsburgh 15 21
Florida State 18 23
Clemson 18 23 -2.5/50
New Mexico State 19 18
San Jose State 23 18 -10.5/46.5
Fresno State 19 21 -3/52
Idaho 19 17
Connecticut 13 17 -8.5/46.5
Buffalo 9 12
UCLA 23 23
Oregon State 30 24 -5/49.5
Nevada 30 33
Texas Tech 66 54 -17/61
Vanderbilt 20 18
South Carolina 31 41 -15.5/50
Louisiana Tech 23 25
Mississippi State 45 38 -19/59
Rice 42 38
Baylor 78 59 -20.5/67
Southern Mississippi 35 33
Virginia 37 31 -3/52.5
Nebraska 26 30 -21.5/59
Wyoming 25 31
Missouri 29 31
Oklahoma 25 35 -21/56.5
Colorado State 19 16
Utah State 27 26 -9.5/56
Tulsa 21 22
Boise State 54 44 -28/62
Oregon 59 64 -15/64.5
Arizona 29 28
USC 22 22
Arizona State 33 38 -2.5/53.5
Florida Atlantic 10 11
Auburn 50 53 -31.5/57.5
Teams Prediction 1 Prediction 2 Vegas spread
Oklahoma State 31 41
Texas A&M 37 36 -4.5/70
North Carolina State 26 28
Cincinnati 26 35 -7.5/60.5
UCF 17 20
BYU 19 25 -2.5/42.5
Colorado 14 18
Ohio State 36 33 -16.5/44.5
Tulane 27 28
Duke 39 31 -10/55
Toledo 18 20
Syracuse 22 19 -2.5/55
UAB 38 32
East Carolina 34 30 -14/60.5
UTEP 10 12
South Florida 27 27 -29/47.5
Western Michigan 27 27
Illinois 28 36 -12.5/53
Ohio 20 21
Rutgers 11 19 -4.5/50.5
Eastern Michigan 13 12
Penn State 35 29 -28.5/44.5
Kansas State 20 25
Miami (Florida) 31 29 -12/47.5
SMU 36 36 -21.5/54
Memphis 17 16
Temple 19 20
Maryland 18 26 -8.5/51.5
Central Michigan 11 10
Michigan State 29 30 -21.5/49.5
Georgia 45 51 -9/54
Mississippi 27 30
Bowling Green 13 13
Miami (Ohio) 21 18 -4/52.5
Army 21 20 -4/50.5
Ball State 22 20
Virginia Tech 23 27 -20.5/46.5
Marshall 9 15
Arkansas 23 27
Alabama 36 44 -12/50.5
California 26 28
Washington 21 28 -1/58.5
LSU 13 21 -5.5/49.5
West Virginia 17 28
San Diego State 39 39
Michigan 36 36 -10.5/57
North Carolina 41 35
Georgia Tech 50 50 -7/58.5
Florida 21 27 -19.5/44
Kentucky 21 32
Notre Dame 21 24 -7/54.5
Pittsburgh 15 21
Florida State 18 23
Clemson 18 23 -2.5/50
New Mexico State 19 18
San Jose State 23 18 -10.5/46.5
Fresno State 19 21 -3/52
Idaho 19 17
Connecticut 13 17 -8.5/46.5
Buffalo 9 12
UCLA 23 23
Oregon State 30 24 -5/49.5
Nevada 30 33
Texas Tech 66 54 -17/61
Vanderbilt 20 18
South Carolina 31 41 -15.5/50
Louisiana Tech 23 25
Mississippi State 45 38 -19/59
Rice 42 38
Baylor 78 59 -20.5/67
Southern Mississippi 35 33
Virginia 37 31 -3/52.5
Nebraska 26 30 -21.5/59
Wyoming 25 31
Missouri 29 31
Oklahoma 25 35 -21/56.5
Colorado State 19 16
Utah State 27 26 -9.5/56
Tulsa 21 22
Boise State 54 44 -28/62
Oregon 59 64 -15/64.5
Arizona 29 28
USC 22 22
Arizona State 33 38 -2.5/53.5
Florida Atlantic 10 11
Auburn 50 53 -31.5/57.5
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Preseason Top 25 thoughts
Today is a big day for college football fans. The first official top 25 poll has been released! I plan on writing a lot about college football (mostly A&M and Big 12 related) this coming year and here's a good excuse to start that party.
Here's the list:
Aug. 4, 2011 - preseason poll
Rank Team (first-place votes) 2010 record Points Final 2010 ranking
1. Oklahoma (42) 12-2 1,454 6
2. Alabama (13) 10-3 1,414 11
3. Oregon (2) 12-1 1,309 3
4. LSU (2) 11-2 1,296 8t
5. Florida State 10-4 1,116 16
6. Stanford 12-1 1,101 4
7. Boise State 12-1 1,065 7
8. Oklahoma State 11-2 933 10
9. Texas A&M 9-4 885 21
10. Wisconsin 11-2 829 8t
11. Nebraska 10-4 814 19
12. South Carolina 9-5 779 22
13. Virginia Tech 11-3 767 15
14. Arkansas 10-3 750 12
15. TCU 13-0 687 2
16. Ohio State 12-1 631 5
17. Michigan State 11-2 536 14
18. Notre Dame 8-5 440 NR
19. Auburn 14-0 329 1
20. Mississippi State 9-4 301 17
21. Missouri 10-3 266 18
22. Georgia 6-7 260 NR
23. Florida 8-5 240 NR
24. Texas 5-7 162 NR
25. Penn State 7-6 161 NR
Others receiving votes
Arizona State (6-6) 158; West Virginia (9-4) 149; Utah (10-3) 50; Miami (Fla.) (7-6) 49; Iowa (8-5) 41; Northwestern (7-6) 30; Arizona (7-6) 28; Central Florida (11-3) 22; Michigan (7-6) 19; Air Force (9-4) 15; North Carolina (8-5) 14; Houston (5-7) 13; South Florida (8-5) 9; Hawaii (10-4) 8; Clemson (6-7) 7; Tennessee (6-7) 7; Southern Miss (8-5) 6; Brigham Young (7-6) 5; North Carolina State (9-4) 4; Northern Illinois (11-3) 4; Oregon State (5-7) 4; Pittsburgh (8-5) 3; Washington (7-6) 3; Georgia Tech (6-7) 1; Nevada (13-1) 1.
So, let's start with teams ranked too high. My first instinct is Alabama. I don't think they can make it through the year with 0 or 1 loss, which is what they would need to be #2. Of course one question that is perpetually unsolved is the question of whether or not a preseason poll is supposed to guess the outcome of the year or is it supposed to rank where you think the teams are relative to each other right now. For my purposes today, I'm commenting on whether or not the teams will finish where they start.
Of course I'm excited to see Texas A&M at #9. This is the first time in ages the Ags have been a top 10 team. The only problem is that as much as I love my team and see real potential, I don't think we'll be that high come January. I'll touch on it a lot more in a later post, but I see A&M as a 9-3 regular season team, probably finishing the year ranked somewhere in the high teens. Of course 10-12 regular season wins are legitimately possible with everything we have coming back, but I don't believe it will happen.
I think South Carolina is a bit high at #12. I respect coach Spurrier a lot and think he's a great coach, but I think SC has reached a ceiling, and in the brutal SEC, which has 8 of its 12 teams ranked, I don't see South Carolina coming out of it with enough wins to justify a ranking that high. The fact of the matter is, when you do have that many teams from the same conference that are all ranked, some of them are going to get knocked out and underperform, just because of the schedule and the parity.
I'm not sold on Ohio State at #16 or Notre Dame at #18. Ohio State obviously has a ton of adjustments to go through after losing their coach and several of their players including the stud QB. Notre Dame is ranked in the top 20 every season, no matter what, so I'm not surprised to see them there, but I'm at a point with them where I'll believe they're a quality team once they show it for a whole year. I do like their coach though and think in the next few years their ranking will be well-deserved.
And finally, let's just all admit that it's laughable to see the Texas Longhorns at #24. Let's be honest, this is just a name pick, just like Notre Dame is every year. If you took the logos off of every helmet and presented a fact sheet about every team to an impartial group, no one, and I mean NO ONE, would rank the team that showed up with Texas' resume. They went 5-7 last year, and this year's schedule only features two teams- that's right, TWO- that Texas beat last year. They have no proven QB, are relying on a true freshman running back, they only return two proven wide receivers, their offensive line was bad, they lost 3 of their 4 starters in the secondary, and they have a whole new coaching staff. Granted, they always recruit well and they could easily sneak their way into a good season if things go well, but no sane person should ever include the team I just described in the top 25. Not when they are leaving out Miami, Utah, W. Virginia, Air Force, S. Florida, Nevada, Pitt, NC State, Iowa and a handful of others with far better resumes than Texas. I'll have much more on Texas at a later date.
There are a few teams I would move up. Wisconsin is one I really like. They're always good, they play solid defense and can run the ball, and they play in a weak conference. But now they get a proven QB for this season in transfer Russell Wilson, who was one of the best QB's in NC State history the last three years and now will play for Wisconsin after graduating from NC State and having one year of eligibility left. Huge pickup for the Badgers and I think they're a top 5 team.
Virginia Tech is another I'd move up. They play a notoriously weak conference and are head and shoulders above anyone in the conference on a yearly basis. Beamer has the formula down and doesn't vary from it. They return enough from what was a VERY good team last year. Don't be shocked to see them in yet another BCS game.
Finally, I'll pick Florida as another underrated team. Yes, they too have to face the brutality of the SEC schedule, but I think Florida still has more athletes than any other team, and I think that Will Muschamp is actually a great defensive coach who will be able to slow down everyone they face. Meanwhile, the offense is going to be very interesting now that they have Charlie Weiss installing his NFL style passing game. Weiss's Notre Dame teams did very well offensively in his first couple years before falling off. I don't know if it was a talent issue or if teams figured him out, but I think that once again, he will come right in and have a successful offense. They have a winning culture at Florida, and I think that goes a long way, and it's why I'm more sold on them than I am on some other SEC teams like South Carolina and Mississippi State.
Here's the list:
Aug. 4, 2011 - preseason poll
Rank Team (first-place votes) 2010 record Points Final 2010 ranking
1. Oklahoma (42) 12-2 1,454 6
2. Alabama (13) 10-3 1,414 11
3. Oregon (2) 12-1 1,309 3
4. LSU (2) 11-2 1,296 8t
5. Florida State 10-4 1,116 16
6. Stanford 12-1 1,101 4
7. Boise State 12-1 1,065 7
8. Oklahoma State 11-2 933 10
9. Texas A&M 9-4 885 21
10. Wisconsin 11-2 829 8t
11. Nebraska 10-4 814 19
12. South Carolina 9-5 779 22
13. Virginia Tech 11-3 767 15
14. Arkansas 10-3 750 12
15. TCU 13-0 687 2
16. Ohio State 12-1 631 5
17. Michigan State 11-2 536 14
18. Notre Dame 8-5 440 NR
19. Auburn 14-0 329 1
20. Mississippi State 9-4 301 17
21. Missouri 10-3 266 18
22. Georgia 6-7 260 NR
23. Florida 8-5 240 NR
24. Texas 5-7 162 NR
25. Penn State 7-6 161 NR
Others receiving votes
Arizona State (6-6) 158; West Virginia (9-4) 149; Utah (10-3) 50; Miami (Fla.) (7-6) 49; Iowa (8-5) 41; Northwestern (7-6) 30; Arizona (7-6) 28; Central Florida (11-3) 22; Michigan (7-6) 19; Air Force (9-4) 15; North Carolina (8-5) 14; Houston (5-7) 13; South Florida (8-5) 9; Hawaii (10-4) 8; Clemson (6-7) 7; Tennessee (6-7) 7; Southern Miss (8-5) 6; Brigham Young (7-6) 5; North Carolina State (9-4) 4; Northern Illinois (11-3) 4; Oregon State (5-7) 4; Pittsburgh (8-5) 3; Washington (7-6) 3; Georgia Tech (6-7) 1; Nevada (13-1) 1.
So, let's start with teams ranked too high. My first instinct is Alabama. I don't think they can make it through the year with 0 or 1 loss, which is what they would need to be #2. Of course one question that is perpetually unsolved is the question of whether or not a preseason poll is supposed to guess the outcome of the year or is it supposed to rank where you think the teams are relative to each other right now. For my purposes today, I'm commenting on whether or not the teams will finish where they start.
Of course I'm excited to see Texas A&M at #9. This is the first time in ages the Ags have been a top 10 team. The only problem is that as much as I love my team and see real potential, I don't think we'll be that high come January. I'll touch on it a lot more in a later post, but I see A&M as a 9-3 regular season team, probably finishing the year ranked somewhere in the high teens. Of course 10-12 regular season wins are legitimately possible with everything we have coming back, but I don't believe it will happen.
I think South Carolina is a bit high at #12. I respect coach Spurrier a lot and think he's a great coach, but I think SC has reached a ceiling, and in the brutal SEC, which has 8 of its 12 teams ranked, I don't see South Carolina coming out of it with enough wins to justify a ranking that high. The fact of the matter is, when you do have that many teams from the same conference that are all ranked, some of them are going to get knocked out and underperform, just because of the schedule and the parity.
I'm not sold on Ohio State at #16 or Notre Dame at #18. Ohio State obviously has a ton of adjustments to go through after losing their coach and several of their players including the stud QB. Notre Dame is ranked in the top 20 every season, no matter what, so I'm not surprised to see them there, but I'm at a point with them where I'll believe they're a quality team once they show it for a whole year. I do like their coach though and think in the next few years their ranking will be well-deserved.
And finally, let's just all admit that it's laughable to see the Texas Longhorns at #24. Let's be honest, this is just a name pick, just like Notre Dame is every year. If you took the logos off of every helmet and presented a fact sheet about every team to an impartial group, no one, and I mean NO ONE, would rank the team that showed up with Texas' resume. They went 5-7 last year, and this year's schedule only features two teams- that's right, TWO- that Texas beat last year. They have no proven QB, are relying on a true freshman running back, they only return two proven wide receivers, their offensive line was bad, they lost 3 of their 4 starters in the secondary, and they have a whole new coaching staff. Granted, they always recruit well and they could easily sneak their way into a good season if things go well, but no sane person should ever include the team I just described in the top 25. Not when they are leaving out Miami, Utah, W. Virginia, Air Force, S. Florida, Nevada, Pitt, NC State, Iowa and a handful of others with far better resumes than Texas. I'll have much more on Texas at a later date.
There are a few teams I would move up. Wisconsin is one I really like. They're always good, they play solid defense and can run the ball, and they play in a weak conference. But now they get a proven QB for this season in transfer Russell Wilson, who was one of the best QB's in NC State history the last three years and now will play for Wisconsin after graduating from NC State and having one year of eligibility left. Huge pickup for the Badgers and I think they're a top 5 team.
Virginia Tech is another I'd move up. They play a notoriously weak conference and are head and shoulders above anyone in the conference on a yearly basis. Beamer has the formula down and doesn't vary from it. They return enough from what was a VERY good team last year. Don't be shocked to see them in yet another BCS game.
Finally, I'll pick Florida as another underrated team. Yes, they too have to face the brutality of the SEC schedule, but I think Florida still has more athletes than any other team, and I think that Will Muschamp is actually a great defensive coach who will be able to slow down everyone they face. Meanwhile, the offense is going to be very interesting now that they have Charlie Weiss installing his NFL style passing game. Weiss's Notre Dame teams did very well offensively in his first couple years before falling off. I don't know if it was a talent issue or if teams figured him out, but I think that once again, he will come right in and have a successful offense. They have a winning culture at Florida, and I think that goes a long way, and it's why I'm more sold on them than I am on some other SEC teams like South Carolina and Mississippi State.
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